Economically, does China need the United States more, or does the United States need China more?

The goods that China provides can all be replaced by alternatives elsewhere in the world—just at a slightly higher price, perhaps around 10% more. In other words, if Americans can tolerate a 10%, or at most 15%, increase in the cost of living, then the U.S. could truly function without China.

Back during the Cold War, the U.S. genuinely did not rely on the Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact countries—there was virtually no interaction between the West and the Eastern Bloc. Of course, the cost of that was significant. Prices in the U.S. were considerably higher at the time; for example, mortgage interest rates were much higher than today.

But after the Cold War, the U.S. and the West entered a relatively peaceful era and began embracing globalization. This meant shifting production to countries with lower costs, which allowed the U.S. and the West to enjoy the benefits of low consumer prices—a benefit that lasted for more than two decades.

Put simply, China, as the “world’s factory,” brought the U.S. the benefit of lower prices—around 10% lower. And what did China gain in return from the U.S. and the West? A lot, if you look around. For example, China still has to import breeding pigs and white-feather broiler chickens by air every year. If China couldn’t import these breeding animals, its pig and chicken breeds would start to degenerate within just three years. Consequently, the prices of pork, chicken, and eggs would rise by 10–20%.

Also, many consumer electronics like the internet, smartphones, and computers are based on technologies transferred from the U.S. and the West. Without these, China might be even more underdeveloped than present-day Afghanistan. However, technology naturally flows from high ground to low ground. Even if China were to block U.S. and Western products, the technology would still gradually make its way into China—just like how even North Korea now has mobile phones and internet access.

But the inability to adopt such technologies in time will always leave China with a 20–30 year technological lag. For example, the U.S. now restricts China from accessing advanced chip technology by setting the threshold at the 14nm node, which first emerged in 2014. That said, 28nm chip production equipment is still widely available and unrestricted, meaning that as long as China doesn’t isolate itself, it can fully access 28nm technology—leaving only about a 10-year gap compared to the cutting edge, much better than a 30-year lag.

Now it’s January 2025. Think back to the kind of electronics we had in the year 2000—life was still manageable, wasn’t it? But now that the world is in 2025, if you’re okay with living at the 2000 standard, then fine. As long as you’re willing to live a 2000-level lifestyle in 2025, China truly doesn’t need the U.S. and the rest of the capitalist West.

Even under a one-sided restriction scenario, China’s gap with the world would only be about ten years—and Chinese people could still live at a 2014 standard of living.