How much industrial capacity will China have under external resource blockade?

Before officially starting the calculations, it’s necessary to clarify my assumptions:

1. Only China has completely cut off all imports and exports.
2. No new mines will be established; industrial production will rely solely on existing domestic mines.
3. The resources considered in this article mainly include minerals (iron, aluminum, copper) and energy (oil, coal, natural gas).
4. No release of reserve production.
5. No recycling.
6. No capacity modifications, such as converting coal to oil or adjusting steel production capacity.

Steel Production Conclusion:
China’s steel production capacity would drop significantly but would still remain the world’s largest, slightly weaker than the combined capacity of India, Japan, the United States, and Russia (the world’s 2nd to 5th largest steel producers). According to estimates from the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, China required 1.33 billion tons of iron ore in 2023, with 1 billion tons coming from imports — meaning domestic supply was only around 330 million tons. Based on the iron ore-to-steel consumption ratio, the annual steel production would be around 200 million tons.

Another key figure is indirect steel exports. Since China would be blockaded, no imports naturally mean no exports. In 2022, China’s indirect steel exports were about 113 million tons. So, in the end, the estimated annual steel production would be around 313 million tons.

Please note that this 313 million tons is based on the following assumptions:

1. No exports
2. No imports
3. No scrap steel recycling
4. No new domestic iron mines opened

Aluminum Production Conclusion:
Primary aluminum production would also drop sharply but would still surpass the combined output of the world’s 2nd to 10th largest producers. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, China produces 40 million tons of primary aluminum annually, consuming 230 million tons of bauxite, with 140 million tons imported. After excluding exports and converting the figures, the final primary aluminum production would be around 18 million tons. For comparison, the second-largest producer, India, produces about 5 million tons.

Copper Production Conclusion:
Copper is the only mineral where China not only produces a large amount but still relies heavily on imports. According to customs data, China produces about 10 million tons of refined copper annually but still needs to import 3 million tons. China’s copper self-sufficiency rate is less than 20%, and even under the most optimistic estimates, domestic production capacity would only sustain 2 million tons of refined copper annually — just slightly below Chile’s output, but definitely higher than countries like the U.S. and Japan.

Fossil Fuel Summary:
The most critical issue would be oil, followed by natural gas, while coal would be the least problematic. I couldn’t find detailed data on indirect fossil fuel exports, so I’ll just give the straightforward numbers:

• Oil: The most severe issue, with an 80% dependence on imports.
• Natural gas: Also highly dependent on imports, but it makes up a smaller share of the domestic energy mix.
• Coal: The most secure resource, with only 10% of annual consumption coming from imports.

Final Summary:
This article only covers common minerals and energy sources, excluding others like rare earth elements. Additionally, the analysis assumes the worst-case scenario with absolutely no changes or adjustments.

If we only consider a total national war scenario, the conclusion is: everything would be sufficient except oil.